QUOTE(Anne @ October 8 2007, 01:18 PM)

Whatever you're looking for, you'll find it.
If you believe we're in a business full of abundance, than you'll find that there's abundance everywhere. If you believe this is a cut-throat business, than you'll find competition everywhere you look. Some people are naturally pessimists and think that everyone else is competing against them- and they're right because they're competing against everyone else irregaurdless of what others are doing.
For me... I live in a wold of abundance, where there's more than plenty to go around, and where helping others leads to more rewarding work and more rewarding people to work with. Rosy colored glasses? Absolutely! And I live a wonderful life because of it.
<donning my "Chicken Little Hat" again>Anne and I dissagree on a few things on this subject. The reason for the difference: she's still young.
I've been in this business about 12 years (full time photog -- primarily weddings). I was the new kid on the block back then, honking off the established "studio" or "classic" shooters because I was primarily Photojournalism -- and a purist in the PJ art. No fancy lighting or silly Kung-Fu posing for me. Why not, I was just done with a 10 year run as a full time news photog. We hated grip and grin group photos... why shoot them in weddings.
I had some good sucess, but never hit much more than 20 weddings. I doubled my prices every two years, and felt good about my future in the industry.
Then digital happened.
The world got flat. And those old "classic" guys started coming to me for advice on how to understand what the "new" digital age bride wanted. Why weren't they still getting their 30+ weddings a year? Why were
"all of these young girls getting the weddings?"They couldn't fathom why folks (mostly girls) with little skill in lighting or posing (as the old farts saw it) were booking 50+ weddings a year, and the old farts were scratching around to keep a dozen or so weddings.
Some observations about what did change:
Disks and negatives and proofs enticed brides to hire the inexperienced -- the noobies. After a year or two, the disks and negatives went away, as the noobs wanted to move from making ends meet in the business -- to making a good living. But with Digital cameras, came decent home photo printers, IPhoto, and PhotoShop elements. Everyone wanted to be able to print "Their" wedding images themselves. Copyright is dissapearing quickly, as well. Remember napster?
Other factors like Weddings on TV (Platinum Weddings, Whose Wedding is it? etc) have fueled the wedding frenzy. Folks with a digital rebel, and a pink slip from work are finding motivation to move into the field of wedding photography. Girls get married, love the wedding experience, and want to continue with those feelings. So they see weddings in pop culture, and see a way to be 1) self-employeed... 2) in the wedding "happy" biz... and 3) be creative/artistic while bringing in some $$$
This is NOT a bad thing. 
Unlike the "old fart" photogs of years past (of which I'm fast becoming one), I don't see change as a detriment. But, when the rules change, you've got to learn to adapt, and set new expectations. The old farts didn't want to make the changes. Those who know what Swan and I went through in the early years, know that I had to be slapped in the fash with a mackrel to accept the "give the disk" change. Since the digital revolution/influx of noobies, those who don't embrace change will wither.
What is bad is when the growth of the providers of a service grows faster than the growth of the sector they're servicing.
QUOTE
Personally I think that any vendor in a wedding type business is in a win/win situation...for the sheer fact that weddings will be around forever!
Yes, weddings will be around as long as people want to get married.
But are the numbers of brides hiring photographers climbing at the same rate as the number of photographers entereing the wedding biz?The numbers I've seen say that the Echo boomers (children of baby boomers) who are just now begining to get married -- will only increase the number of brides by about 10%. But, in our market, here in Indiana, I've seen an increase (taking into account those who drop out) of at least 25% on average, each of the last three years.
A friend of mine, also the local guild president, kept a spreadsheet of local photographers -- all of the ones he could find. He finally gave up last year, saying there were too many to keep up with now.
So: Yes. You can sucede if you envision it. If you put your mind to it.
But the better question is, how many of those in the wedding biz, or trying to get into the wedding biz, will still be in biz in another five years?
Look around your markets. See how many of the Notable or Rock Star wedding photogs that got their start in the last three to five years are still trying to get 50+ events a year. See how many of them haven't had to re-adjust their pricing down to keep that number, or to retool their packages to include more bang for the buck, to keep their number of events where they want to be.
How many of these rock stars are now giving seminars? How many are selling software, hawking DVDs, website design, etc to capitalize on their status (while they can).
There is about to be another new generation of photographer hit the wedding biz. The Echo Boomer Brides that are just now coming of age, are also, just now, entering the photographic field.
My prediction... overall, the industry will have another 5 to 10 years of rapidly changing business models, and faces.
Bella and Pictage are going to be two key indicators to watch. They are already partnered up. What if they merge?
OK... that should be enough food for discussion.
Have at me, though varlets! (Sorry, I went to a Renaissance Fair this weekend)